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Decision Making

Reed Hastings Netflix Image courtesy Hector Vivas/Latin Content/Getty Images

Today I was looking at my business cases portfolio that I have prepared in the course of my part-time MBA studies at GWU School of Business and I noticed that I have not published any cases from my Marketing classes yet. So I found one of the sections I prepared for a group project on Netflix, Inc.: DVD Wars. Shortly after I posted it in the Business School Cases  section of the blog, I went to check out business headlines on CNNMoney only to find out that Netflx grabbed the top headline.  I had not followed the Netflix stock closely, so I did not know about the planned quarter results announcement for today. Speaking of coincidences and prescience :-) .

Anyways, at the time of checking, the Netflix stock lost almost 30% of its closing price in the after hours trading. This was the result of their 3-d quarter results announcement, and namely the fact that the company lost  800,000 subscribers in the quarter, and forecast of loosing even more customers in the ongoing quarter.

All this commotion brought me to thinking of the brand loyalty. How far it goes, how far it can be stretched, and what are the resistance points after which real damage to the company bottom line starts?

For years Netflix has been praised for their innovation and revolutionizing the video rental business:

  • Their movie recommendation algorithm was as much of the analytical marvel as the platform for quasi-social networking interactions of the movie buffs.
  • Their queuing algorithm for DVD deliveries was another  example of business efficiency and analytical approach, which was praised by the industry analysts, and at least tolerated by the “frequent flyers” of the Netflixland who were shuffled from the top of the waiting list when they had too many new releases under their belt within a certain period of time.
  • I personally met quite a few “Netflixitizens” who were so enthusiastic about the service and everything it entailed, it almost felt like they were some kind of the ‘intellectual elite’, privileged club members of sorts compared to “unenlightened Blockbusterians” and the likes. In a way, it reminded me of the unconditional love and adoration felt and expressed by so many Apple fans for the company and its products under Steve Jobs in the last decade.

All this strong following came under severe testing this past summer when Netflix was forced to raise their prices for both mail and streaming service by more than 50% in anticipation of their contracts re-negotiation with the content providers. This caused so-called “price hikes rage” manifested in stock price plummeting almost 20% in one day and the mass exodus of Netflixitizens from “the land of plenty”. Of course, they did not hesitate to fan out their frustration at the exit.

The price hike effect was further exacerbated by quick introduction and then removal of Qwikster service which raised further questions about  the company’s strategic vision or the lack of such.

So here comes the question of brand reputation and brand loyalty. How much can you get away with by capitalizing on, or exploiting, the customers loyalty? As Netflix CEO Reed Hastings wrote in a letter to shareholders: “We’ve hurt our hard-earned reputation, and stalled our domestic growth.” Obviously, the reputation is hard to build, and once built, the company can capitalize on it in a big way. But reputation is not something to be taken for granted, it needs to be continuously maintained and can be damaged quite easily by clumsy “elephant-in-the-china-shop”- like moves. As was the example with Netflix this past few months or Toyota recalls debacle last two years.

I believe they can recover, just like Toyota mostly recovered, just like Apple re-surfaced as the market leader in early 2000-s. But they need to be more in-tune with their own customers and their long-term strategy.

This situation with Netflix reminded me of another company and another CEO I had a post on recently – Harrah’s Entertainment and Gary Loveman. Both Hastings and Loveman seem to be very analytical in their approaches, but lacking in intuitive department. And, as the history shows, this misalignment can lead to rather costly mistakes.

As for my recommendations that I gave in the DVD Wars case, it appears that Netflix needs to put in order the basic 4 P’s of Marketing, before they embark on any alternative complementary strategies.

Ironically, I had to cancel my Netflix subscription two years ago when I started my part-time MBA program at GWSB, just don’t have time for movies anymore. ;-)

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I mentioned in an earlier post that I am taking a “Database and Web Analytics” elective class this first module of the fall term at GWSB MBA program. The required reading for this class is Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning – not exactly a textbook, but rather – a high view of employment of analytics in a wide range of businesses published by Harvard Business School Press. The book gives a lot of specific examples from real world companies and how they engage analytical methods, often interchangeably called business intelligence outside the book. I am still in the early chapters of the book so I could not give a thorough review of it. But so far it is an easy read mostly aimed at whetting you appetite for use of analytics in your business.

From the title of the book you could guess that the emphasis is not on applying business intelligence to routine operational processes, such as supply chain management, but rather on using analytics for getting competitive advantage through strategic enterprise-wide application of analytics to distinct capabilities of the company which may lie in various departments and functions, including supply chain management among others.

However the very first thing that perked my interest for the book was a forward by Gary Loveman, the CEO, and what not, of the Harrah’s Entertainment. I first learned about him while preparing analysis of the case Harrah’s Entertainment: Rewarding Our People in my Human Capital Management class in Spring Term 2010. The case was set in 2001, not long after Gary Loveman  started his full-time tenure with Harrah’s as a COO in 1999. The emphasis of that case was quite a bit different, so the analytical inclinations of Loveman did not shine through that much in the case, though there were cursory references to his MIT and HBS academic past.  That’s why I got intrigued to see him giving a forward to this book.

So I did a bit of digging around and found out that he is indeed a quant buff very heavily employing analytical methods, including statistical analyses, throughout the company. The article on Bloomberg.com reads like a business thriller – Loveman Plays `Purely Empirical’ Game as Harrah’s CEO. One of the highlights in the article for me, the poet that I am, was Loveman’s own admission: “The quantification on Macau took me in the opposite direction. You had to have a kind of intuitive courage and I am not well suited to those kinds of decisions” (emphasis mine). This was in reference to a particular deal, which Loveman called his worst mistake.

As for me, I have been getting more and more sold on the usefulness and importance of quantitative analysis and employment of business intelligence in the business throughout my course of studies in the part-time MBA program at GWU School of Business. Dah! ;-) And this article just confirmed that quantitative analysis and intuition have to work in accord, not at the expense of each other. Very difficult balancing act, escaping many otherwise brilliant people in business.

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Nothing too exciting happenned at the exam. The format was open book, open notes. Needless to say that even with this format I felt a brain-freeze, as oftentimes the case in my quantitative classes. Will see how I fared on the forced grading curve. The stuff covered in the exam was all the material we have studied so far in the class: sampling distribution, confidence interval, hypothesis testing. All the stuff that makes people excited, myself including :-) I wish I also had a better grasp on it.

Speaking of the better grasp. Earlier in the module I asked professor if he could recommend some other book which could be used to better understand the concepts we learn in the course and their application. Surprizingly, professor admitted he was not specifically excited about the textbook we were using, but it had been the department’s choice, not his. So he recommended another book.

I earnestly hoped it would be some other kind of book, not another graduate level statistics textbook, which I already had. I hoped for something a bit more on a layman, or at least undergraduate level. I thought, he might wholeheartedly endorse something from Complete Idiot’s Guide to… series, or from the … for Dummies collection. A-hem. Apparently he does not read this kind of books, at least not on statistics.

So he recommended me a book. I was so desperate about my struggles with statistics that I ordered it right away on Amazon. When it arrived soon after and, I opened the package… it was yet another textbook on statistics at graduate level :-( . I admit, it has a huge advantage, about 30% advantage to be more precise: it has only about 800 pages vs almost 1100 pages in our required textbook for this statistics course. I actually read side by side a few definitions from both books, just to see if it is really better/easier explained in my new acquisition. I can not tell. I think that some stuff is explained a bit clearer in one, whereas other explanations are a bit more conceivable in the other book. On the right, by the way, is the new book I am talking about.

Now I have two textbooks on statistics. What I don’t have is the time to read them both. So I will use them for cross-reference in especially  difficult cases. And for straight reading I would stick with the new one, even if for the sake of its “brevity” :).


I will even throw in for free this business idea for left-brainers with entrepreneurial inclinations (even though we all know it’s usually not going together. You are either entrepreneur or a left-brainer. Just kidding): how about creating a series of cartoon/comics level books on all quantitative core MBA courses? Come to think of it, why not to have cartoon/comics books on all qualitative MBA classes for those struggling left-brainers too :-) . Forget Complete Idiots’ and Dummies series – too complicated. We need comics! :-0

And staying true to my MBA credo, I rescind that free offer. I will take a few copies of each book for personal use as a small token of appreciation for this great idea.

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On Friday morning I checked out my co-workers on their preparedness for the Super Bowl Sunday. I am not following any sports (not even soccer, chess, ice hockey, or cricket), so my main interest was if they were prepared for a good party time. Turned out both of them for one reason or another were not planning on having a big party, just watching TV at home. With a couple of friends (best case scenario). Family circumstances and such. One of them also complained he could not buy meat for the party because of this snowstorm shopping frenzy that started already on Thursday.


For me the only value of Super Bowl is that it is a showcase of new TV commercials. But even then the breaks between the commercials, when they are showing the actual game I don’t understand, are too long. So I prefer to look up the new commercials on the internet the next day. Today on Time.com there is a full collection of all commercials that were run during airing of the Super Bowl. If you by chance missed them, take a peek. There is some pretty cool stuff to be found. By the way, Super Bowl is not the single biggest sports event watched by most people in the world, as one of my co-workers tried to argue. The rest of the world outside North America does not even know much about it. They live in blissful ignorance of this game, honestly believe that soccer, ice hockey, chess, cricket, gymnastics, or whatever else, you fill the gap here with your opinion ………………… , are the most popular, most watched sports events in the world.

And some of them are actually right, as it turns out the Soccer World Cup is the most watched sports event in the world. Of which popularity most of the people in the US are blissfully ignorant. Just a little example on biases and importance of minimizing their effect in decision making. Something I learned in my MBA class on Decicion Making\Judgement & Uncertainty.

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Decision Making Final Exam – This Time Final for Real

December 14, 2009

The full name of this course in our MBA program is Judgement/Uncertainty&Decisions. During the exam the main descriptive of my state was “Uncertainty”. Out of this uncertainty was the necessity to make some decisions, based on a limited judgement. At least the torture was limited to just two hours. Some problems were related to the stuff [...]

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Decision Making Final

December 13, 2009

Today I spent half of the day reviewing material for the take home part of the final on Decision Making. It was excruciating. After 5 PM I decided that there is no point to try to catch all the pieces of the course. So I downloaded the exam and just worked on the problems. It [...]

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Finals Are Coming, Parties Too

December 11, 2009

Yesterday was the last official class of scheduled sessions in my first semester of part-time MBA program. However, since our class in Business Ethics fell on Thanksgiving we are going to have a makeup next Thursday. But it is mostly irrelevant. Our final research paper is due at next class. This is probably the only reason I [...]

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Girding Up for MBA Term Finals

December 8, 2009

Now is the final week of classes for this half-term. Yesterday I had my last class before the exam for Decision Making. Professor has announced the format of the final. It will be a combination of in-class and take home assignments that need to be submitted online. This time instead of 24-hours window for submission, [...]

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Normal Distribution, Financial Accounting And the Aha Moment

November 21, 2009

I just got the aha moment, and since it’s too late at night to share my joy with anybody at home (everyone is fast asleep for quite a while now), I will spill my joy in this blog. There are two events that lead to the moment. Chronologically the first one was on Wednesday, when [...]

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